一年后上涨的概率53.6%平时 82.4%
一年内再跌 20% 以上的概率50.7%平时 16.7%
一个月内反弹 10% 以上的概率47.8%平时 10.3%
1985 年以来，符合的有 70 天。最近一年内的 1 天还看不到一年后的结果，不算；下面的概率按其余 69 天算。
最坏的一次：2000-04-03 那天之后一年跌了 65.7%
每一次之后一年的涨跌幅 · 69 次
一年后下跌的 32 次
每一次 · 一共 70 天
| 日期 | 当天 涨跌 | 离高点 | 一周后 涨跌 | 一个月后 涨跌 | 一年后 涨跌 | 一年内 最大跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | −6.4% | −14.7% | — | — | 今天 | — |
| 2025-04-04 | −6.1% | −21.5% | +7.4% | +13.8% | +43.1% | −1.8% |
| 2025-04-03 | −5.4% | −16.5% | −1.0% | +7.8% | +30.7% | −7.7% |
| 2022-09-13 | −5.5% | −27.4% | −1.5% | −10.4% | +28.6% | −11.3% |
| 2022-05-18 | −5.1% | −28.0% | +0.1% | −5.6% | +15.7% | −10.5% |
| 2022-05-05 | −5.1% | −22.5% | −7.0% | −2.0% | +3.4% | −16.9% |
| 2020-09-03 | −5.2% | −5.2% | −5.8% | −2.2% | +33.0% | −8.0% |
| 2020-06-11 | −5.0% | −5.0% | +4.4% | +10.6% | +46.0% | 没再跌 |
| 2020-03-16 | −12.2% | −27.8% | −0.2% | +22.4% | +87.3% | −0.4% |
| 2020-03-12 | −9.3% | −25.3% | +0.3% | +14.7% | +78.1% | −3.7% |
| 2020-03-09 | −6.8% | −18.2% | −11.7% | +1.3% | +61.0% | −12.0% |
| 2011-08-08 | −6.1% | −15.2% | +7.5% | +7.9% | +31.9% | −1.1% |
| 2009-01-20 | −5.1% | −44.7% | +5.1% | +2.8% | +64.3% | −8.2% |
| 2008-12-01 | −8.0% | −48.9% | +12.3% | +11.0% | +63.8% | −4.3% |
| 2008-11-19 | −5.9% | −49.1% | +9.7% | +11.9% | +63.0% | −4.7% |
| 2008-11-05 | −5.7% | −40.1% | −10.4% | −9.4% | +32.4% | −20.3% |
| 2008-10-21 | −5.1% | −42.7% | +1.1% | −15.3% | +36.6% | −19.2% |
| 2008-10-15 | −8.8% | −44.4% | −0.6% | −0.3% | +40.9% | −16.7% |
| 2008-10-07 | −5.8% | −40.6% | +2.6% | −2.3% | +28.6% | −22.1% |
| 2008-09-29 | −10.5% | −33.2% | −5.7% | −13.3% | +14.8% | −30.7% |
| 2008-09-17 | −5.3% | −27.1% | +1.8% | −19.6% | +5.4% | −36.5% |
| 2002-08-01 | −5.0% | −47.8% | +3.7% | +3.2% | +38.4% | −11.9% |
| 2002-07-25 | −6.0% | −48.9% | +2.1% | +13.0% | +42.9% | −10.0% |
| 2002-07-01 | −5.1% | −45.5% | −0.8% | −3.6% | +22.0% | −19.4% |
| 2001-10-29 | −5.5% | −59.0% | +7.7% | +13.3% | −30.1% | −41.5% |
| 2001-10-17 | −6.4% | −62.0% | +8.4% | +20.4% | −28.1% | −38.8% |
| 2001-09-17 | −8.3% | −67.0% | −4.9% | +12.1% | −28.4% | −31.6% |
| 2001-05-30 | −5.0% | −56.6% | +7.0% | +1.7% | −32.8% | −36.7% |
| 2001-04-23 | −6.3% | −55.8% | +2.4% | +12.8% | −31.2% | −37.8% |
| 2001-04-03 | −7.7% | −67.4% | +14.2% | +34.2% | −2.6% | −19.4% |
| 2001-03-28 | −7.7% | −63.7% | −14.4% | +13.0% | −12.8% | −29.7% |
| 2001-03-20 | −6.7% | −65.7% | +7.5% | +21.0% | −10.8% | −30.2% |
| 2001-03-12 | −7.3% | −64.3% | +3.0% | −4.9% | −10.4% | −32.9% |
| 2001-03-09 | −6.5% | −61.5% | −9.1% | −18.3% | −17.5% | −37.8% |
| 2001-02-27 | −6.3% | −58.2% | +0.6% | −18.4% | −23.7% | −42.6% |
| 2001-02-20 | −5.3% | −55.5% | −6.2% | −23.4% | −33.1% | −46.2% |
| 2001-02-16 | −6.7% | −53.0% | −5.2% | −27.0% | −36.4% | −49.1% |
| 2001-02-02 | −5.2% | −47.5% | −8.5% | −20.1% | −41.3% | −54.4% |
| 2001-01-05 | −7.8% | −51.8% | +10.5% | +9.1% | −27.9% | −50.3% |
| 2001-01-02 | −9.1% | −54.8% | +8.6% | +22.5% | −21.7% | −47.1% |
再看 30 天
| 日期 | 当天 涨跌 | 离高点 | 一周后 涨跌 | 一个月后 涨跌 | 一年后 涨跌 | 一年内 最大跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-12-20 | −7.9% | −53.0% | +11.5% | +23.5% | −27.3% | −49.0% |
| 2000-12-19 | −5.6% | −49.0% | +2.5% | +10.1% | −33.7% | −53.0% |
| 2000-11-28 | −5.4% | −44.3% | +8.8% | −6.0% | −37.6% | −57.0% |
| 2000-11-10 | −5.5% | −38.6% | +1.5% | −0.9% | −45.3% | −61.0% |
| 2000-11-08 | −6.7% | −35.0% | +0.6% | −5.4% | −48.2% | −63.2% |
| 2000-10-25 | −7.3% | −33.9% | +3.8% | −8.9% | −56.1% | −63.7% |
| 2000-07-28 | −5.5% | −26.1% | +4.1% | +13.7% | −52.0% | −60.6% |
| 2000-05-23 | −7.4% | −35.7% | +9.9% | +25.8% | −35.3% | −54.7% |
| 2000-05-10 | −5.8% | −31.0% | +9.4% | +15.9% | −43.3% | −57.8% |
| 2000-05-02 | −5.3% | −22.9% | −5.0% | −3.0% | −45.9% | −62.2% |
| 2000-04-14 | −9.7% | −31.8% | +4.5% | +13.7% | −47.9% | −57.3% |
| 2000-04-12 | −7.0% | −22.8% | −1.4% | −6.3% | −52.8% | −62.3% |
| 2000-04-10 | −6.8% | −15.0% | −11.7% | −18.8% | −60.0% | −65.7% |
| 2000-04-03 | −7.3% | −13.3% | −1.9% | −12.6% | −65.7% | −65.7% |
| 2000-01-04 | −6.4% | −6.4% | −0.1% | +8.6% | −28.7% | −40.0% |
| 1999-04-19 | −5.7% | −11.9% | +14.9% | +9.7% | +63.0% | 没再跌 |
| 1998-10-05 | −5.4% | −17.6% | +3.0% | +16.1% | +104.6% | −6.5% |
| 1998-10-01 | −5.3% | −13.1% | −11.4% | +10.0% | +88.8% | −11.4% |
| 1998-08-31 | −9.9% | −22.2% | +12.8% | +18.0% | +110.2% | −1.0% |
| 1997-10-27 | −7.5% | −14.8% | +7.4% | +6.1% | +38.4% | −4.0% |
| 1996-01-09 | −5.1% | −14.0% | +2.2% | +15.1% | +61.8% | 没再跌 |
| 1995-07-19 | −5.4% | −8.3% | +5.4% | +9.0% | +15.4% | −2.3% |
| 1991-11-15 | −5.5% | −6.0% | +0.6% | +5.0% | +22.5% | −0.5% |
| 1990-08-06 | −5.2% | −18.2% | +3.0% | −3.8% | +35.1% | −18.0% |
| 1988-01-08 | −6.2% | −26.0% | +1.0% | −0.2% | +12.2% | −3.6% |
| 1987-10-26 | −11.7% | −39.9% | +18.5% | +12.6% | +38.9% | 没再跌 |
| 1987-10-22 | −5.5% | −29.9% | −4.2% | −6.1% | +20.3% | −14.4% |
| 1987-10-20 | −7.5% | −32.7% | −9.8% | +0.6% | +22.9% | −10.8% |
| 1987-10-19 | −15.1% | −27.2% | −17.5% | −7.8% | +12.9% | −17.5% |
| 1987-10-16 | −5.1% | −14.3% | −20.7% | −19.5% | −4.3% | −29.9% |
怎么算的
条件：纳斯达克 100 指数（^NDX）收盘比前一天跌 5% 以上。1985 年 10 月以来 70 天；今天之后还不满一年，不算，统计用 69 次。
一年后：之后第 252 个交易日的收盘价，和当天收盘价比。
一年内再跌 20%：之后 252 个交易日里最低的收盘价，比当天低 20% 以上。
一个月内反弹 10%：之后 21 个交易日里最高的收盘价，比当天高 10% 以上。
平时：1985 年 10 月以来全部 10,103 个交易日，问同样三个问题。
价格：纳斯达克 100 指数收盘点位（价格指数，不含分红）；Yahoo Finance ^NDX 日线 1985-10-01 起，最近几天万得 NDX.GI 接上。
数据截至 2026-11-05 收盘。没满期限的写「—」。
数据来源：Tushare Pro、万得、今日投资、Alpha Vantage、聚宽、雅虎财经、美联储经济数据、芝加哥期权交易所、美国金融业监管局、美国证监会、纳斯达克官网、中证指数公司、中国外汇交易中心、上海证券交易所、东方财富、新浪财经、腾讯财经、雪球、英为财情、Reddit（经 Arctic Shift 存档）、博查搜索、GDELT 全球新闻库、世界银行、MSCI、标普道琼斯指数、罗伯特·希勒数据、法玛-弗伦奇数据库、德意志联邦银行、日本财务省