一年后上涨的概率35.1%平时 79.0%
一年内再跌 20% 以上的概率71.9%平时 19.4%
一个月内反弹 10% 以上的概率47.4%平时 8.5%
1999 年以来，符合的有 58 天。最近一年内的 1 天还看不到一年后的结果，不算；下面的概率按其余 57 天算。
最坏的一次：2000-09-21 那天之后一年跌了 67.5%
每一次之后一年的涨跌幅 · 57 次
一年后下跌的 37 次
每一次 · 一共 58 天
| 日期 | 当天 涨跌 | 离高点 | 一周后 涨跌 | 一个月后 涨跌 | 一年后 涨跌 | 一年内 最大跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | −6.3% | −14.6% | — | — | 今天 | — |
| 2025-04-04 | −6.2% | −21.5% | +7.5% | +13.9% | +44.1% | −1.6% |
| 2025-04-03 | −5.4% | −16.3% | −1.0% | +7.8% | +31.2% | −7.7% |
| 2022-09-13 | −5.5% | −27.0% | −1.5% | −10.4% | +29.4% | −11.1% |
| 2022-05-05 | −5.0% | −22.3% | −7.0% | −1.8% | +4.2% | −16.5% |
| 2020-09-03 | −5.1% | −5.1% | −5.9% | −2.4% | +33.5% | −8.0% |
| 2020-03-16 | −12.0% | −28.6% | +0.9% | +24.0% | +90.7% | 没再跌 |
| 2020-03-12 | −9.2% | −25.2% | +0.2% | +14.7% | +79.2% | −4.5% |
| 2020-03-09 | −6.9% | −18.3% | −12.5% | +1.7% | +62.2% | −12.5% |
| 2020-02-27 | −5.0% | −13.2% | +2.9% | −9.7% | +53.9% | −17.7% |
| 2011-08-08 | −6.0% | −15.2% | +7.5% | +8.0% | +32.9% | −1.1% |
| 2008-12-01 | −7.5% | −48.6% | +11.7% | +10.6% | +64.3% | −4.3% |
| 2008-11-19 | −5.2% | −48.7% | +9.3% | +11.3% | +63.4% | −4.8% |
| 2008-11-05 | −5.2% | −39.8% | −10.3% | −9.5% | +33.1% | −20.1% |
| 2008-10-21 | −5.2% | −42.6% | +1.2% | −14.7% | +37.8% | −18.8% |
| 2008-10-15 | −9.0% | −44.2% | 0.0% | −0.5% | +41.5% | −16.5% |
| 2008-10-07 | −6.3% | −40.5% | +2.9% | −2.0% | +29.5% | −21.7% |
| 2008-09-29 | −7.9% | −31.1% | −7.8% | −15.8% | +12.2% | −32.4% |
| 2008-09-17 | −5.2% | −26.7% | +1.7% | −19.7% | +6.0% | −36.4% |
| 2002-07-25 | −5.8% | −49.3% | +2.2% | +13.0% | +42.9% | −9.8% |
| 2002-06-19 | −5.8% | −40.2% | −6.2% | −12.3% | +11.3% | −26.6% |
| 2001-10-29 | −5.5% | −59.0% | +8.0% | +13.8% | −29.7% | −41.1% |
| 2001-10-17 | −7.2% | −62.4% | +9.0% | +21.7% | −27.4% | −38.2% |
| 2001-09-17 | −8.5% | −67.0% | −5.1% | +12.1% | −28.9% | −31.3% |
| 2001-06-14 | −5.2% | −58.8% | +2.6% | +0.2% | −37.4% | −37.4% |
| 2001-05-29 | −5.9% | −55.0% | +3.8% | −5.1% | −36.3% | −38.9% |
| 2001-04-23 | −6.7% | −56.0% | +2.2% | +12.7% | −31.1% | −37.6% |
| 2001-04-16 | −6.0% | −60.8% | +12.2% | +12.2% | −16.5% | −30.0% |
| 2001-04-03 | −7.3% | −67.5% | +14.8% | +35.0% | −2.4% | −18.7% |
| 2001-03-28 | −8.2% | −63.9% | −14.2% | +13.7% | −12.4% | −29.0% |
| 2001-03-20 | −6.7% | −65.7% | +7.2% | +19.7% | −11.1% | −30.1% |
| 2001-03-12 | −6.2% | −64.1% | +2.3% | −5.9% | −11.5% | −33.4% |
| 2001-03-09 | −7.0% | −61.7% | −8.6% | −17.8% | −17.5% | −37.5% |
| 2001-02-27 | −6.0% | −58.4% | +0.8% | −19.0% | −23.6% | −42.5% |
| 2001-02-16 | −5.6% | −53.2% | −5.4% | −26.8% | −36.5% | −48.9% |
| 2001-02-02 | −5.5% | −47.8% | −8.4% | −19.7% | −41.2% | −54.2% |
| 2001-01-05 | −7.6% | −51.9% | +10.8% | +8.8% | −27.9% | −50.2% |
| 2001-01-02 | −8.5% | −54.6% | +7.1% | +21.9% | −22.4% | −47.2% |
| 2000-12-20 | −5.8% | −52.7% | +10.2% | +21.6% | −28.2% | −49.4% |
| 2000-12-19 | −7.6% | −49.8% | +4.1% | +12.3% | −32.9% | −52.3% |
再看 18 天
| 日期 | 当天 涨跌 | 离高点 | 一周后 涨跌 | 一个月后 涨跌 | 一年后 涨跌 | 一年内 最大跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-11-28 | −5.9% | −44.4% | +8.0% | −6.1% | −37.6% | −56.9% |
| 2000-11-16 | −5.8% | −38.1% | −3.3% | −12.2% | −46.1% | −61.3% |
| 2000-11-10 | −5.2% | −39.1% | +1.5% | −0.1% | −45.1% | −60.7% |
| 2000-11-08 | −7.8% | −35.7% | +2.2% | −10.2% | −47.6% | −62.8% |
| 2000-10-25 | −5.6% | −33.9% | +4.0% | −9.6% | −56.5% | −63.8% |
| 2000-10-10 | −5.2% | −33.5% | −0.1% | −3.3% | −55.4% | −64.0% |
| 2000-09-21 | −7.3% | −25.5% | +4.3% | −1.6% | −67.5% | −67.9% |
| 2000-07-28 | −5.4% | −26.2% | +3.7% | +13.4% | −52.0% | −60.8% |
| 2000-05-23 | −8.4% | −36.5% | +11.6% | +27.3% | −35.0% | −54.5% |
| 2000-05-10 | −7.3% | −32.3% | +11.5% | +17.6% | −42.6% | −57.3% |
| 2000-05-02 | −5.8% | −23.5% | −4.6% | −3.1% | −45.7% | −62.2% |
| 2000-04-14 | −8.7% | −31.8% | +5.4% | +13.0% | −48.7% | −57.6% |
| 2000-04-12 | −5.9% | −21.9% | −3.2% | −8.0% | −53.5% | −63.0% |
| 2000-04-10 | −6.7% | −15.5% | −9.9% | −19.8% | −60.0% | −65.8% |
| 2000-04-03 | −6.0% | −12.6% | −3.3% | −13.4% | −66.3% | −66.3% |
| 2000-01-28 | −5.0% | −10.6% | +13.0% | +24.1% | −22.1% | −37.9% |
| 2000-01-06 | −9.3% | −15.5% | +13.9% | +23.0% | −29.3% | −33.3% |
| 2000-01-04 | −6.9% | −6.9% | +0.2% | +9.3% | −29.2% | −39.4% |
怎么算的
条件：纳斯达克 100 ETF（QQQ）收盘比前一天跌 5% 以上。1999 年 11 月以来 58 天；今天之后还不满一年，不算，统计用 57 次。
一年后：之后第 252 个交易日的收盘价，和当天收盘价比。
一年内再跌 20%：之后 252 个交易日里最低的收盘价，比当天低 20% 以上。
一个月内反弹 10%：之后 21 个交易日里最高的收盘价，比当天高 10% 以上。
平时：1999 年 11 月以来全部 6,543 个交易日，问同样三个问题。
价格：含息价（AlphaVantage 复权收盘，分红再投），1999-11-01 起。
数据截至 2026-11-05 收盘。没满期限的写「—」。
数据来源：Tushare Pro、万得、今日投资、Alpha Vantage、聚宽、雅虎财经、美联储经济数据、芝加哥期权交易所、美国金融业监管局、美国证监会、纳斯达克官网、中证指数公司、中国外汇交易中心、上海证券交易所、东方财富、新浪财经、腾讯财经、雪球、英为财情、Reddit（经 Arctic Shift 存档）、博查搜索、GDELT 全球新闻库、世界银行、MSCI、标普道琼斯指数、罗伯特·希勒数据、法玛-弗伦奇数据库、德意志联邦银行、日本财务省